February 26, 2010 11:11 AM
Regardless Of The Health-Care Summit Outcome, The Political Math Is Pretty Easy
The political math on this issue is really very simple. The public supports a health care bill, but believes the current Democratic alternatives are too expensive and the current Republican alternatives are too stingy. The public wins if both sides meet each other half way and Congress passes a consensus bill, which would also give Congress and both parties a badly needed boost in the public's eye. This would be the safe route for both parties. In alternative scenarios, either party could lose big time at the polls this fall, depending on how things play out.
Democrats will certainly lose a lot of seats this fall if they game the reconciliation process in order to pass a bill that the public perceives is too expensive. Republicans will hammer them mercilessly on both the cost of the measure and the unfairness of the process. Moderates will desert the Democratic party in droves, whether the healthcare bill passes or not. Conversely the Republicans risk losing their current polling advantage on this issue if they refuse to meet the Democrats in the middle and the Democrats then take the more moderate approach in order to pass a health care bill without gaming the process. The risk for Republicans is that the Democrats might voluntarily reduce the cost and coverage of their bill as much as it takes to get 60 votes in the Senate, which would require the vote of one moderate Republican and make it a "bipartisan bill" in Washington parlance. The bill would only have to be affordable and just a little better that the Republican alternatives to achieve wide public support, and that is not a big challenge. If the Democrats took the latter approach and succeeded, the current Republican polling advantage on this issue would evaporate.
Of course the latter approach also assumes that the liberal House Democrats would support such a Senate bill. Betting against such an outcome could be a smart move from a Republican perspective. The resulting bill could easily fail because of Democratic intraparty fights, and the outcome could be a disaster for the Democrats in November. Democrats would deserve the punishment because of their failure to respond to the need for moderate support.
The risk for Republicans of betting on Democratic self destruction is that the Republicans then have no control over the outcome. If the Democrats do manage to pass a bill that is broadly perceived as both affordable and better than the Republicans are offering, they will recapture public support on this issue. The polling advantage could turn against the Republicans if the public also perceives the failure to reach a compromise in the current discussions was more because of Republican inflexibility than Democratic inflexibility.
As the Olympic games in Vancouver wind down, the health care policy game finals are starting in Washington. Step right up and place your bets, folks. The final score will be announced this November.
Democrats will certainly lose a lot of seats this fall if they game the reconciliation process in order to pass a bill that the public perceives is too expensive. Republicans will hammer them mercilessly on both the cost of the measure and the unfairness of the process. Moderates will desert the Democratic party in droves, whether the healthcare bill passes or not. Conversely the Republicans risk losing their current polling advantage on this issue if they refuse to meet the Democrats in the middle and the Democrats then take the more moderate approach in order to pass a health care bill without gaming the process. The risk for Republicans is that the Democrats might voluntarily reduce the cost and coverage of their bill as much as it takes to get 60 votes in the Senate, which would require the vote of one moderate Republican and make it a "bipartisan bill" in Washington parlance. The bill would only have to be affordable and just a little better that the Republican alternatives to achieve wide public support, and that is not a big challenge. If the Democrats took the latter approach and succeeded, the current Republican polling advantage on this issue would evaporate.
Of course the latter approach also assumes that the liberal House Democrats would support such a Senate bill. Betting against such an outcome could be a smart move from a Republican perspective. The resulting bill could easily fail because of Democratic intraparty fights, and the outcome could be a disaster for the Democrats in November. Democrats would deserve the punishment because of their failure to respond to the need for moderate support.
The risk for Republicans of betting on Democratic self destruction is that the Republicans then have no control over the outcome. If the Democrats do manage to pass a bill that is broadly perceived as both affordable and better than the Republicans are offering, they will recapture public support on this issue. The polling advantage could turn against the Republicans if the public also perceives the failure to reach a compromise in the current discussions was more because of Republican inflexibility than Democratic inflexibility.
As the Olympic games in Vancouver wind down, the health care policy game finals are starting in Washington. Step right up and place your bets, folks. The final score will be announced this November.
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